Forum:2012 Atlantic hurricane season
Hall of Fame 2012 Elections have begun! Ryan1000 15:09, February 24, 2012 (UTC) Future start Well, I felt like making this forum for the future 2012 season(Yes, it is July 1st, 2011), and I have every other forum made too. The Atlantic hurricane season's betting pools are Here, the Pacific hurricane season's betting pools are Here, and I think we will have a 9-14 storm season, a 4-6 hurricane season, and 2-3 major hurricane season in 2012, possibly from an El Nino event. Ryan1000 03:11, July 1, 2011 (UTC) :Wow you started this early. I'll post my predictions when the 2011 hurricane season ends. Though I guess I'll make some of my bets now and change them as the year gets closer. Yqt1001 03:30, July 1, 2011 (UTC) ::I wanted to begin it primarily for the SHem, but this season will also be a future class one. I'm thinking we will have a pretty silent year in the Atlantic in 2012; I think this because we have a neutral start as of now, but we will continue to have conditions slowly change to El Nino like 2009, which will slowly hinder activity in the Atlantic and strengthen the Pacific. The SHem will also likely have a pretty good year, particularly the SPac and somewhat the Australian region. Ryan1000 03:46, July 1, 2011 (UTC) :::I'll make my predictions nearer the time as well, when we know more about what sort of season we are in for. We are likely to have El Nino conditions at some point during this year, though. HurricaneFiona 09:26, July 2, 2011 (UTC) :Not sure about that. We will likely have one in 2013, but in 2012, we are actually likely to see a revive of La Nina or stay neutral. I also have been thinking of making betting pools worldwide in this year, but we are still in 2011. I made the SHem betting pools at least... Ryan1000 17:55, July 13, 2011 (UTC ::We may get a weak La Nina return this season, but I think we're staying neutral. I'm going with 16 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 4 majors. OWEN2011 16:24, July 16, 2011 (UTC) :I made my newest blog post for what I think we will see in 2012. Anyone who wants to see it may view it here. Ryan1000 18:38, December 3, 2011 (UTC) :Here are my predictions for 2012: 20 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 6 major hurricanes. Andrew444TalkBlog 23:16, December 8, 2011 (UTC) :I really would want to reach William next year but it depends my forecast for now will be 16 names storms 7-9 hurricanes and 5-6 majorsAllanjeffs 22:22, December 14, 2011 (UTC) :Update: Because there is a more likely chance of El Nino/ENSO, I have revised my forecast to 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. Andrew444TalkBlog 03:05, December 15, 2011 (UTC) :Really??? I read that was going to be a neutral year 2012 but we will seeAllanjeffs 23:52, December 15, 2011 (UTC) ::La Nina returned to us in September of 2011, and it could persist until June or July 2012. Even if we do turn to El Nino at some point in 2012, I don't think it will happen in spring, but rather Autumn, so the activity could still be above average per my blog post predictions. Ryan1000 15:38, December 17, 2011 (UTC) And 2012 has officially begun! Anyone besides me and Andrew have predictions for this year? Ryan1000 01:21, January 1, 2012 (UTC) I already put my prediction look a little up and you`ll see Allanjeffs 17:43, January 3, 2012 (UTC) Eh, okay, anyone who hasn't made any calls yet have predictions for 2012? Ryan1000 04:39, January 4, 2012 (UTC) Have all of you note that when we have a El Nino we always end with 9 or 7 name storms no more no less Allanjeffs 02:20, January 8, 2012 (UTC) Actually, it's expected to be neutral in 2012. I don't expect El Nino until next year. I'm surprised how conservative the're being for 2012 when we're expected to be neutral. Even if we do transition to El Nino this year, we won't really see the changes until next year. Ryan1000 12:39, January 8, 2012 (UTC) :One worrying factor to me is that there is mostly heat just remaining in the Caribbean and the GoM, the CATL is pretty cold. There could be a few more worrying storms this year than say 2011 in the Caribbean and GoM. Yqt1001 15:00, January 8, 2012 (UTC) ::That doesn't mean 2012 will be bad for us. Wind shear is also another factor; last year I thought 2011 would be bad for us but instead of potentially getting a 2005, we got a repeat of 2010 impact-wise. 2012 could do the same thing (which is still bad), but we can't assure this year will be a bad one. I personally think this is our lucky naming list. Only 3 names have ever changed from it since 1979. =) On the other hand, next year's naming list has featured a retiree every time it was used before... Ryan1000 04:16, January 9, 2012 (UTC) ::Maybe this year the list would retire some names because when this season start something always happen and it end with just 7-9 name storms maybe this year would be an exceptionAllanjeffs 20:45, January 16, 2012 (UTC) :::Never know... The naming list of last year only had 2 retirees before 2005, and after that year alone, there were 7 names off that list. I don't know whether or not we will have a bad season, but since 2005, the tropics haven't settled down in ATL. We've had devastating years ever since except in 2006 and 2009. The pre-season forecasts for 2005 looked just like this and the next thing they know we get the most active year ever in ATL. I'll wait until later to see what 2012 has in store for us. Ryan1000 01:29, January 17, 2012 (UTC) :::People have you all look at the models they are developind STS Albert in the coming days if this trully happens we could our fisrt name storm in February since a long time.Allanjeffs 12:58, February 2, 2012 (UTC) ::::There is some hefty shear aloft in the Gulf of Mexico right now, but if it settles enough to see Alberto it would be the first storm to develop in the Atlantic Basin in February in 60 years. The 1952 Groundhog Day Tropical Storm (which occured 60 years ago on this day) was the last such storm. It hit southern Florida as a 40 mph storm, causing only minimal damage. Alberto, if it forms, likely won't become much in terms of strength. I'd think a TS (or STS) peak of 65 mph, possibly 70 mph, at max from that storm in the GOM. Ryan1000 14:33, February 2, 2012 (UTC) It's May now and I've got caught into the pre-hurricane season hype so here are my totals. I'll update my final betting pool ideas today as well. El-Nino seems likely for peak season so I don't expect many storms, but conditions seem better than last year as far as stronger Caribbean and GoM storms go. We'll see what happens but nonetheless here are my predictions: 11-13, 7-8, 2-3 Yqt1001 18:45, May 6, 2012 (UTC) 1st CSU Forecast Here it is! Andrew444TalkBlog 23:16, December 8, 2011 (UTC) I'm very surprised as to how conservative WSI and TSR are for 2012... They said the La Nina is rapidly collapsing and we should get a neutral season, but we won't get El Nino until late 2012 or 2013. But still, 14-7-3? And 12-7-3? That seems like bustcasting to me. I don't think 2012 will be a slow season at all. I still think it will be an active, above average season for the Atlantic and near-normal for everywhere else. More or less, 2012 reminds me of 2008 or 2003, but not 2009 by any means. Ryan1000 19:40, December 25, 2011 (UTC) 2nd CSU Forecast It's out. Currently they forecast a near-normal to below-normal season with only 10 storms, 4 hurricanes, and 2 maors. Maybe my blog post prediction might not be so accurate after all. Still, we have a chance to see a major hurricane landfall, and after not seeing one for 4 years, one could say we're due now. Ryan1000 15:34, April 5, 2012 (UTC) Damned forum...Deleted my last post. Reposted it, and yeah, we're looking at a 2009 more than a 2008 now. Ryan1000 20:00, April 5, 2012 (UTC) A link is here. --AndrewTalk To Me 01:20, April 8, 2012 (UTC) Another thing that should be noted is there is a slight modification NHC made to the Saffir-Simpson Scale for this hurricane season. They said from now on a category 3 is from 111-129 mph, a category 4 is from 130-156 mph, and a category 5 is 157 mph or higher. Nothing else is new. Ryan1000 21:42, April 8, 2012 (UTC) They better retire Irene this week if not I would really be piss.Allanjeffs 20:44, April 10, 2012 (UTC) There's not much else to talk about (retirements part 3 is on the 2011 ATL forum), but the main reason I think it's certain now is because the damage was rescently upped to 18.7 billion, per the NHC's updated TCR yesterday. I never expected it to go up that much, and if that didn't happen, there would have been a chance it wouldn't be retired. Now there's pretty much no chance Irene won't be retired. Irene's getting the boot, one way or another. It could be announced this Thursday or Friday, when the meeings are really under way, or, like they usually are, the WMO could be sluggish to releasing their reports to the press and might not do it until several days after the meeting, like they did last year. The tropics are taking a nap for some time until then. Lee and Jova are also potential players, but Irene is the only one you can really look forward to being retired. Ryan1000 20:01, April 11, 2012 (UTC) Now the 2nd TSR forecast is out. 12.5 tropical storms, 5.6 hurricanes, 2.6 major hurricanes, and a ACE index of 95 are predicted. Look here. AndrewTalk To Me 22:10, April 12, 2012 (UTC) June AOI: Near Nicaragua This AOI looked pretty well organized during the duration of today. It has been moving towards the {C southeast at a steady pace after blossoming this morning east of Belize and north of Honduras. The upper level winds in the area are in a blaze and it is hard to determine the future track of this AOI. Personally I don't see development, but there's a lot of people (especially on Wunderground) who see development from this. CobraStrike (t)(b)( ) 01:54, May 28, 2012 (UTC) :I don't expect a lot from this system as of now. No major global model picks this system up. Climatologically speaking, the formation of this system is highly improbable. Darren23 | 02:41, May 28, 2012 (UTC) :I think it has a shot look what happen with Beryl it didn`t develop in the caribbean because there was a lot of wind shear but it look like winde shear will abate in 72 -96 hours if it can hold on then we might have a td or another ts in our hands.Allanjeffs 02:53, May 28, 2012 (UTC) It's not in the same conditions Beryl was in, but then again, the conditions for Beryl did get better over time. We'll have to see what this will do. Ryan1000 03:06, May 28, 2012 (UTC) :After wandering around the western Carribbean for a few days, it appears that the AOI is starting to wane. It's making landfall in the Cancun area. CobraStrike (t)(b)( ) 21:09, May 30, 2012 (UTC) Not looking likely we'll see Chris. We had a brief incredible start, but the hot streak ends here. Ryan1000 21:38, May 30, 2012 (UTC) ::Upper level low over western Yucatan and surface low over eastern Yucatan moving northwards into GoM. --'CobraStrike '(t)(b)( ) 17:43, May 31, 2012 (UTC) ::Chris will likely not come from this.What I look is that the GFS has Chris in 300 hours making a low that is in the pacific come northward and eat. it its like Arlene and Alex form in the past years maybe we will see Chris until then ,and even though is 300 hours the GFS was predicting Beryl formation like 250 before she form so we will see.another thing if Chris form in the situation that the GFS is portraying then Chris will move into the USA and not into Mexico like the last years.Allanjeffs 22:57, May 31, 2012 (UTC) :::In case you don't know what Allan is talking about, to the right is the GFS forecast for a predicted storm that would emerge into the Caribbean and strike the US, along with its timing. The black line represents it as a regular low and the blue as a tropical depression. --'CobraStrike '(t)(b)( ) 23:11, May 31, 2012 (UTC) If anything I hope that future storm becomes nothing more than a rain maker like Alberto of 2006, but we had an incredible start to the season and if this forecast turns out to be correct, we could be on par with 1887 for earliest third storm ever. Ryan1000 23:23, May 31, 2012 (UTC) :Actually, if Chris forms as the GFS says so, 1887 will still hold the record with its third storm forming on June 11, but it would beat the second place spot, which is held by an unnamed hurricane (also known as Escuminac hurricane, one of Canada's deadliest hurricanes) which formed on June 18, 1959. CobraStrike (t)(b)( ) 00:09, June 1, 2012 (UTC) ::::300 hours??? Really??? Are y'all really taking forecasts at super super super long range with a grain of salt? GFS is, I would say, a decent model, but even at say... 7 days, I would be less than inclined to suggest that without any concrete evidence/atmospheric pattern in favor of development. I'm not saying that this may not happen, I'm just saying that with the low resolution of GFS at that timeframe, climatology, and the fact that it's super super long range, means that this, as of now, has about a near 0% chance of happening, as the NHC always says. Darren23 | 01:54, June 1, 2012 (UTC) :::::We've seen long-shot models go bullseye and it happens, but with this one I'm not putting too much effort into it. When the GFS gets into the timeframe of better resolution and the models start showing it, then I would take it more seriously. --'CobraStrike '(t)(b)( ) 13:22, June 1, 2012 (UTC) :::::::I'm not expecting it to develop right now, of course, but it's something to watch in the long run. Ryan1000 19:11, June 1, 2012 (UTC) The AOI is now steamrolling into Florida, bringing in a bunch of tropical moisture and strong squalls. The National Weather Service predicts that as much as 2 in/hr rainfall rates are likely in localized areas. Once it moves through Florida, it should be absorbed by the cold front that is currently causing problems in the Washington D.C. area. --'CobraStrike '(t)(b)( ) 21:22, June 1, 2012 (UTC) : The cold front swept through Florida, basically shredding apart much of the AOI. While most of the moisture from the AOI is now spewed over much of the area where Alberto and Beryl once existed, I think we can call of the AOI now and consider it pretty much dead. CobraStrike (t)(b)( ) 02:43, June 2, 2012 (UTC) the GFS is showing Carlotta and Chris like a week from here i think.Allanjeffs 23:40, June 3, 2012 (UTC) AOI: Gulf of Mexico This system is gathering a lot of attention on the grounds of Wunderground. The system lies in the heat of the Gulf and has been there since yesterday. While there is still a lot of shear now, shear tendency is on the downcline and shear has gone down 10 knots since yesterday. This storm is worth warranting. CobraStrike (t)(b)( ) 17:35, June 5, 2012 (UTC) The CMC and Nogaps are developing this when it reach the east coast but the Gfs and the Euro don`t that would be amazing if it really happens but I have a lot of doubts.Allanjeffs 20:15, June 5, 2012 (UTC) :The models don't develop this, they develop another system that will split off of a trough that will likely shear this system to death as it moves to the east coast. Yqt1001 21:52, June 5, 2012 (UTC) ::Saw this about 3 days ago and immediately dismissed it as non-tropical. And, models are developing it as a cold-core system. Models are not developing anything warm (or even shallow core) in the next week or so in the Atlantic. Darren23 | 22:39, June 5, 2012 (UTC) ::::Not looking too likely we'll see much out of this storm. I'm more baffled at the fact we're seeing Kuena in the SWIO at this time of year. Mawar is starting to wrap up. Ryan1000 03:31, June 6, 2012 (UTC) New Hurricane Wiki Main Page I think my renovated page can get more feedback here, so here you go: Transcluded from my blog: Hello! Thanks for coming here. Today I was thinking that our Hurricane Wiki main page was lacking detail, so I decided to make a test rennovation of it. I am currently accepting comments and feedback on my new rennovated main page that you can find here. Comment on this blog post if you want to send feedback. You can suggest more things or any fixes I can incorporate into the sandbox before I can replace the main page with it. Thanks for your feedback in advance. CobraStrike (t)(b)( ) 00:06, May 20, 2012 (UTC) : I like the new homepage.Cyclone10 00:46, May 20, 2012 (UTC) :: I actually think that it looks pretty good. We can make the new homepage official by the start of June; by then we should have reccieved enough feedback from everyone. Ryan1000 10:32, May 20, 2012 (UTC) :: This new homepage is truly awesome! AndrewTalk To Me 11:10, May 20, 2012 (UTC) :::: One quick question: what's the main thing about the article of the month thing I see there? Will it automatically be updated or will we choose what article goes there on IRC? Ryan1000 13:10, May 20, 2012 (UTC) :::::: Regarding the article about the month.... we could either do a monthly pick on IRC anywhere from 0 to 3 days in advance of the next month, or we could create a set for the year. CobraStrike (t)(b)( ) 13:46, May 20, 2012 (UTC) Retirements at a Glance Here's mine: *Alberto - 0% - No. *Beryl - 20% - Wasn't that much damage. --Cyclone10 03:10, June 1, 2012 (UTC) :If it floats your boat; mine has a hole in it, though. Yes, retirement predictions can be fun, and I can't fault anyone for being excited at the early activity in the ATL and EPAC, but what's the point of doing these sections after just one or two failures that couldn't get the boot if they tried? I did mine just after Don last year, but I think just after the "A" storm is pushing it... but then again, this is the first time I've been here for the early-season (started posting in November 2010, then disappeared until last July), so if starting this early is a custom, then fine. But I won't post mine until we're at least through Debby (or until we get a significant storm, should she, Beryl, or Chris become such). --HurricaneMaker99 19:40, May 22, 2012 (UTC) Yeah, I don't see the huge point in starting this section after the first storm in the season. Normally, I wait until we get 4-6 storms until I name my canidates in part 1, or a notable storm altogether. I began part 1 in 2010 in EPac right after the first storm in that year, but Agatha did have a reasonable chance of retirement. Alberto and Aletta do not. So can we perhaps wait a little more in the future? Ryan1000 23:50, May 23, 2012 (UTC) I don`t know if to make predictions for the ENP because they never retire names with good numbers of retirement nowdays they didn`t even retire Agatha that kill a lot of people but retire Alma that just because represent soul I don`t think that is a good excuse for taking her out and not Agatha.Allanjeffs 22:59, May 31, 2012 (UTC) Retirements for Mexico and Central America are weird and most often random. Mexico retired Kenna of 2002, which killed 4 and did 101 million in damage and they didn't retire Karl or Alex of 2010, which did nearly 8 billion in damage combined. Alex was described by some as Monterrey's worst hurricane since 1909 and Karl hit Mexico's biggest port city as a major hurricane (also described as the worst hurricane to hit Veracruz in a long time), but wasn't retired. If you want to talk about snubs, don't go past Gordon. Karl was perhaps the worst damage snub ever, or a second to Juan of 1985. Ryan1000 01:01, June 1, 2012 (UTC) :So that's why one has to look for more than numbers alone to predict a retirement (such as post-impact press coverage, to name a factor), as I said I think during that debate about 2 years ago. Darren23 | 01:37, June 1, 2012 (UTC) :Actually Ryan Central America retire almost anything that hits them except Matthew because I think the values of property damage were exagerate and its true Darren press coverage induce retirement with Mitch for example almost every octuber the press remember Mitch and they do an hour of remember of how much things it destroy and all that , meanwhile with Matthew no one remembers him. if you came here you will se how weird it is to someone in here not remember the name Mitch,supposedly is bad luck in here that name.Allanjeffs 04:20, June 1, 2012 (UTC) I don't always care what the press says. What they view as bad isn't always what others view as bad. Hurricane Hanna of 2008, for example, didn't get that much press coverage after it struck Haiti(certainly not as much as Gustav and Ike did), but a storm that kills over 500 people still should be retired IMO. Hanna killed more people than Gustav and Ike combined for christ's sake. I don't care what anyone says; that's bad one way or another. Wouldn't you view 537 people dead as bad enough for retirement? Damage and media attention do play a role in notability, but it doesn't always correspond to what really is the case. Personally, I don't like the fact the Atlantic gets all the attention (the WPac and NIO storms are certainly more notable by death toll), but I know can't really change that. The media of the North Atlantic overhypes hurricanes when they approach the coastlines of Central America and the U.S, but the reason why is because they want to get people to evacuate and out of harm's way, because since the Mitch/Katrina tragedies ect, they don't want that to ever happen again. I don't know if it's because we "care more" in the U.S. or Central America, but I don't always view hurricanes based on the amount of media attention they get. A similar practice has been applied by the National Weather Service since the tragedy of the Joplin Tornado of 2011; the're using a more urgent voice in tornado warnings to get people out of harm's way, but that doesn't mean the tornado was as bad as they said it would be. Ryan1000 06:21, June 1, 2012 (UTC) ::I'm talking about indicators that give a good idea if a storm name will be retired. Damages and deaths alone, due to past experience, cannot solely be used to determine if a storm will be retired. Admittedly, there are many which I believed should have been retired (maybe Lee, Karl, Alex and Agatha from the past 2 years. Honestly, I thought Lee had the best shot of all of these to be retired, followed by maybe Alex), but they weren't. I don't make my predictions on what I think should be retired, but what I think will be retired. Darren23 | 15:13, June 1, 2012 (UTC) :::For my retirement predictions, I take into account three things: statistics (55%), reaction (40%), and past occurances (5%). --'CobraStrike '(t)(b)( ) 15:18, June 1, 2012 (UTC) :::::I make my predictions on what storm names I think should be retired. Although i'm not sure if the storm will be retired, if it killed enough people and caused enough damage (Hanna in one of those cases), then it should be retired IMO. What will happen isn't always what I think should happen, but that's just my opinion, of course, and if i'm wrong in the end, so be it. Ryan1000 18:26, June 1, 2012 (UTC)